The NAV rate in August was 104.10, which gives an increase for the month of 0.54. An excellent month that is above the target for rolling twelve-month figures of at least 6%.
Inflow of SEK 22 million, thank you very much for that.
New lending in September was approximately SEK 30 million. The fund is fully invested and everything you invest now will be put to work directly throughout the year.
The market: The single most important event in the near future is the election in the United States, I believe. I wrote in last month's letter that I think Trump will win and I still think so (though I hope for Biden), although I personally think it's an unpleasant thought. As I mentioned before, I am most worried that Trump will not hand over power in the event of a Biden victory. This will probably lead to unrest, which in turn will add to the risk appetite. In this graph you see the market's prediction of the election outcome, you can see that it is a fairly large predominance for Biden. You can also see that 6 months ago it was the next zero. A lot can happen before election day.
Once the election is completed, I believe risky assets will continue to develop well regardless of whether Trump or Biden wins, but more so with Trump as he will probably come up with an expansive tax package that will be received positively by the market.
Covid-19 is, as earlier this year, what works in the other direction. A sharp increase is underway in Europe, however, it seems that politicians are trying to keep the wheels in motion as far as possible. It would be a disaster with shutdowns of the type that were in the spring.
Vaccine, it is the holy grail that we all long for, it would change the picture completely. I think the market expects an effective vaccine to be in place before the turn of the year or during Q1 2021. Unfortunately, the reverse is the case if it is very late.
Risky assets have had a bit of a downturn in September with high volatility. However, October has started in major and the Stockholm Stock Exchange has set a new "all time high".
Below you can see the fund's return since the start. It is a very nice curve and high risk-adjusted return since the start.
Below you can see what type of company we have finances invoice purchases from:
(the fund uses its opportunity for borrowing, hence the positive and negative allocation figures)
We emphasize that we are not stressed by non-lending funds, but continue to work based on our models for credit assessment, all to ensure a good diversification of the portfolio in relation to the credit risk we take.
If you need to sell your holdings, do so in the primary market where you get the best price. The official NAV price is published on the first banking day each month, what is shown during the month on NGM is not, I do not want to emphasize the official NAV price, as fund units in the secondary market may have been converted to a lower price than official NAV.