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November: Good month for NFF - return on target in rolling 12 months

The NAV rate in November was 105.21, which gives an increase for the month of 0.54 (0.52 %). A good month that is above the target for rolling twelve-month figures of at least 6 percent.

Inflow of SEK 12 million, thank you very much for that.

New lending in November was approximately SEK 19 million. The fund is fully invested. We have a demand surplus on factoring some time into next year, so new investments will be put into work immediately.

Our work with extra follow-up of our borrowers, which is driven by the second wave of covid-19, is ongoing, and is going well. We have not had to make any concessions that affect the portfolio to any extent, there are marginal adjustments to IFRS this month. I want to emphasize that our exposure to the hospitality industry, transport, tourism, etc. is zero.

Below you can see the fund's return since the start. It is a very nice curve and high risk-adjusted return since the start. We are very pleased with how the fund is developing.

 

November: Bra månad för NFF – avkastning över mål på rullande 12 månader 13
Source: Bloomberg

 

The graph below shows all the months in the fund since the start, we have no minus months, how many funds can show it during this period?

 

November: Bra månad för NFF – avkastning över mål på rullande 12 månader 14

 

The market:

 

During November, we experienced one of the best individual months for risky assets in modern times, congratulations to everyone who has been overweighted shares in, for example, Spain, UK, etc.

 

We have received:

  • New President of the United States Joe Biden wins convincingly, the market (and I) like it. This hopefully means that the United States will once again become a stabilizing factor in the world instead of just thinking about its voters in the Midwest. I further hope that the rhetoric will return to something that does not resemble the level of a quick-witted child and gets sand in the eyes but becomes statesmanlike and respectful of everyone's opinions.
  • The market also likes that Democrats do not win the Senate so they can pursue a policy that is stifling growth.
  • Vaccination is underway and vaccination will start in the UK next week.
  • Central banks continue to emphasize an ultra-light monetary policy and that it will last for several years to come.

Government bond yields are around zero and are not an option for those who want a return on their capital.

 

All this has contributed and will contribute to a positive sentiment in the near future.

 

In the graph you see Sweden's GDP growth since the year 2000 and with it I want to illustrate that with the right measures the economy will return to growth eventually, it will work out this time as well. The fall in GDP was actually greater during the financial crisis, but it was less noticeable, because then there were no restrictions on how we should live our lives.

 

November: Bra månad för NFF – avkastning över mål på rullande 12 månader 15
Source: Bloomberg

 

What do any risks look like in the future?

 

  • Risky assets have once again run off a little too fast and the real economy with fiscal policy is lagging behind. We see signs that Poland and Hungary are preventing the EU from implementing the huge support package they voted through this summer because they cannot accept the wording that a precondition for support is that countries must follow "democratic principles" (just because Trump are gone, the powers of darkness are not gone, we have them close by)
  • The vaccination takes time, there is a setback for vaccines. I am very worried that in Europe, and especially in Sweden, the preparations for mass vaccination are poorly planned. The government believes that the regions have the responsibility and vice versa. In the end, it affects a service sector that is lame, let's hope I'm wrong.
  • Inflation will not come this year and perhaps not in the next few years. The more I shout at the wolf, the less likely someone is to listen when it comes.
  • When the asset purchases of long-term government bonds cease, long-term interest rates will rise dramatically and risky assets will be shaken. It will be a delicate balancing act for central banks to walk around the world.

 

The world needs growth and some inflation to reduce the debt burden, which has now been built up in a short time, it was large before and now it has slipped away in some places. However, it is right to stimulate a lot, it is the way back that can be a little worrying.

 

Below you can see what type of company we have finances invoice purchases from:

 

November: Bra månad för NFF – avkastning över mål på rullande 12 månader 16

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