Monthly report March 2021 - SCF I

The NAV rate for March was 101.62, an increase of 0.54 (0.53 %) per month and a standard deviation of 0.90. A robust month that we are happy with.

We have inflows of about SEK 39 million, thank you for that.

New lending in March was approximately SEK 60 million. We have a lot of repayments totaling SEK 450 million during March. This shows that the business model with both deposits and lending works well. The liquidity at the time of writing is approximately SEK 200 million and I expect to put more into work later in April. We made a couple of major loans in early April. We continue our work with extra frequent follow-up of our companies with regard to the Corona situation.

The market
Last week, the ISM service index came out in the US and it was super strong. Activity in the US is on the way back with news. With a stimulus package of USD 4.1 trillion, fiscal policy pumps out a rarely seen stimulus in the US economy and this is shown in the statistics. It is a mixture of direct grants and infrastructure investments that are implemented. This, together with a lack of consumption from the citizens of the USA in the past year and ultra-light monetary policy, guarantees a strong recovery, especially in the second half of 2021. We can also look forward to this as it will spill over onto global growth.

ISM Service Index

This is priced in stock prices in the United States. What may not be priced in but which is a risk on the downside are higher corporate taxes, higher interest rates as a result of inflation that will bite and not be a temporary increase as the Fed believes and that interest rates will rise as a result. We will see what the effects of this will be on risky assets, however, we can state that we live in an interesting stage of the global economy where everything possible can happen and happen.

Covid-19 and vaccination
In the graph below, you can clearly see what happens to new cases of infection when a country has more than 50 percent of the population vaccinated. The curve in Israel is very clear where they are down on almost no new cases. It is also very clear in the UK that the high vaccination rate is clearly visible in new cases of Covid-19, so the faster the vaccine rolls out, the faster we can return to the "new normal". What do I want to say with these graphs? Well, vaccination is so important to be able to return to an open society where we do not have to be limited and be looked at skewed if we happen to go too close to someone at ICA. When I see these graphs, I become optimistic, let's hope that we in Sweden can also reach this vaccination level before the summer.

Covid Mars 2021

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